The US Open quarter-final between Roger Federer and Jo-Wilfred Tsonga could be a defining match. There is nothing that has not been said about the genius and majesty of Roger Federer. Whether he is indeed the greatest player of all time is something that should be discussed at the end of his career; right now, the focus must be on whether he can recover from his recent form against the up and coming Frenchman. When they met in June in SW19, Federer was seeking a record-equaling seventh Wimbledon title. He breezed through his opening four matches, losing only one set, and played his usual elegant game against Tsonga. But, he was spectacular smashed out after squandering his lead, marking the first time that he has ever lost a Grand Slam match after being two sets up. He subsequently lost to Tsonga again in the Roger's Cup last month.
Despite finishing the Wimbledon quarter-final with only 11 unforced errors, half as many as Tsonga, Federer could not get close to breaking the Frenchman's serve when he desperately needed to. And this will be the key if he's going to win. He still has one of the best serves on the tour, and in that meet he was only broken three times. However, they were decisive as his service return did not put Tsonga under enough pressure. This has been a common feature of his last couple of years, massively trailing his three biggest rivals in the statistics. Djokovic wins almost 40 percent of games in which he is returning serve, Nadal and Murray just behind. Federer in contrast has won only 26 percent of his receiving games this year. It puts a lot of pressure on his serve, so he must attack the Tsonga's serve tonight.
This US Open has another significance being his first major since he turned 30. While a third seeding represents a graceful fall down the standings, the fact is only a handful of players have ever won a Grand Slam in their 30's. Andre Agassi won the Australian Open at 32 in 2003, Pete Sampras the US Open at 31 in 2002. The fact is he'll never be as consistenly great as he once was, and it is looking increasingly unlikely that he will ever return to number 1 in the world, but from watching Federer this week, he certainly looks at his best. If he does not finish as the champion it will be the first year since 2002 that he hasn't won at least one major. For a player with such a spectacular record at the US Open, he must have been disappointed with his defeats in the last two years - up two sets to one in the 2009 final against Del Potro, and last year he had a couple of match points before losing to Djokovic in the semi.
His drop down the rankings isn't simply a drop in form from the Swiss himself, and Federer acknowledges that - 'I'm aware that Novak had to do something extremely special to get past me. Same thing for Rafa. I think we all had to do something very special to get past each other in the rankings. I think that's a good thing.' Incredible self-confidence, which also reflects his claim that he wouldn't continue to play if he didn't think he was good enough to win another Slam. Unfortunately, his winning performances at the French and Wimbledon in '09, and at the Aussie Open in 2010 were the exception rather than the rule. He has undoubtedly lost some of his belief and is well aware that it is no longer a case of if he plays at his best, he will win.
However, the way in which he destroyed Argentinian Juan Monaco in the fourth round could not fail to rekindle memories of just how brilliant he can be. Winning 6-1, 6-2, 6-0 in a preposterous 82 minutes, (only five minutes longer than it took Djokovic and Dolgopolov to finish their mammoth first set,) the score still failed to completely reflect his dominance. He hit an astonishing 42 winners to Monaco's 4. Tsonga though is a different level entirely, and their last couple of meets will weigh heavily on his mind. He has only lost a set so far this tournament, but I fear that if Tsonga does get off to a good start and wins the first set, it will take a monumental mental effort to maintain his belief and come back. If he does lose tonight, I really fear as to whether he will be here this time next year. How long can a champion of Federer's stature maintain his will to win when he has already done it all? What is against him is the way in which lesser players are thriving on and raising their game at the opportunity to defeat arguably the greatest player in the sports history as his ability appears to wane. Players no longer walk onto the court expecting to lose; he has lost that old air of invincibility and he can appear vulnerable.
So, all considered, Tsonga in five? No. I'm going for Federer in 3. He's a genius and is hitting the ball as well as he ever has. He has won this tournament 6 times, and it would be foolish to count him out; despite Djokovic's ruthless efficiency, Federer is my favourite to be lifting the trophy at the end of the week, whenever that will come with the weather preventing yet another Sunday finish.
Will Federer ever dominate tennis again the way he did for 237 weeks from 2004? Most likely, no. He may be 30, but I can't believe Federer, having achieved all he has and having aged so gracefully won't win another Grand Slam. Let's hope it comes this week, and let us hope it isn't just a swan song.
Showing posts with label US Open. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US Open. Show all posts
Thursday, 8 September 2011
Sunday, 4 September 2011
Will Andy Murray ever fulfil his potential?
With Andy Murray expected to comfortably beat Feliciano Lopez in the Third round of the US Open tonight, booking himself into the second week in yet another Grand Slam tournament, there should be plenty of reason for optimism. He has just come off the back of a successful tournament in Cincinnati, so despite only just prevailing in his five set tussle against Haase in his last match, he seems in good form. This is a player whom has appeared in three Grand Slam finals, four semi-finals, and has a phenomenal record against arguably the best three players ever to dominate the top of the world rankings concurrently in the sports history. Against Federer? Won eight, lost six. Against Djokovic? If you were to exclude those matches played on clay, undoubtedly Murray's weakest surface, he has won four and lost three. It is only against Nadal that he has really failed to impress, although he still has four victories to his name. So, with such a spectacular record against the games finest players, why would I be willing to bet all that I have to my name, which is admittedly not a lot, on another failure this week?
For me there are only two things stopping him. Technically, his serve is quite simply not up to scratch. It is a mystery why his training has failed to focus on this, which can perhaps only be explained by his current lack of a coach. They say you can make statistics say anything, but his position as 51st in the world in terms of 1st serve percentage, and an even more dismal 64th in the world in terms of second serve points won, are undeniably critical to his failures. Winning less than half of his second serves, you can see that he is throwing away his advantage of being the best returner in the game by being broken too many times himself.
Perhaps the most telling fact, bringing together his two greatest flaws in a catastrophic union, is the statistic of how many break points he saves. Djokovic saves close to 70 percent, Nadal and Federer in the mid 60's. When they are in trouble, they have the talent and courage to serve themselves out of it. Murray, however, languishes below the 50 percent mark. The key word there, differentiating the three greatest players of their generation, who have won 25 of the last 26 grand slams between them, from Andy Murray, is courage. On the biggest stage, he crumbles.
Sport is littered with outstanding athletes who never managed to fulfil their potential, not because of a lack of talent, but because of a lack of nerve. Murray has a lot in common with the Jamaican sprinter, Asafa Powell. World record holder at the 100 metres for nearly three years before Usain Bolt's explosive arrival in Beijing, he has broken the 10 second barrier more times than any one else. He is consistently brilliant - except at major competitions. 5th in the olympics in Athens, 5th in Beijing, twice a disappointing bronze medallist in the World championships, he claimed 'I am not scared of the Olympics.' Similarly to Murray, maybe Powell has simply been unfortunate that they have been performing at the same time as some of their sports greatest ever athletes. Powell, however, eventually admitted, 'Maybe I'm not the guy for those big championships but just the guy to compete in the Grand Prix and Golden League meetings. It's just unfortunate.'
As I have said, Andy Murray consistently puts himself in the position to win Grand Slams. But in his three finals, he has not managed to win a single set. In his four semi finals, he has won only two sets. For over an hour at Wimbledon this summer, he dominated Nadal, showing incredible confidence and ability to win the first set. But, again he collapsed. How can a player of such undoubted ability have so little confidence in his own game? The pressure of being Britain's best tennis player in well over a generation must weigh heavily, particularly at Wimbledon. He certainly seems outwardly aggressive on the court, yet seems unable to channel this agression into his shot making in the same way as a Nadal or a Djokovic. His forehand is, at times, spectacular. It was even christened, the 'fearhand', by his former coach Brad Gilbert, who had coached other elite players such as Andre Agassi and Andy Roddick. Federer and Henman have both noted that they believe that Murray could achieve so much more if he played more aggressive shots, aiming to hit the lines more regularly, rather than just trying to slog it out from the baseline. The technique is certainly there, Nadal commenting after his victory over Murray at Wimbledon, 'I don't think he needs more. He is playing well enough – a little bit more luck, maybe. Five-set matches are tough, over two weeks.' To put Murray's failure's down to bad luck would be kindness verging on the ridiculous.
You can't help but feel that once the first major title is won, plenty more would follow. Asafa Powell once said that, 'I'm the only one who can defeat myself and I don't intend to.' Well, he never had the bottle to succeed, and with the emergence of the phenomenon that is Usain Bolt, you feel that his chance has gone. We can only hope that Murray conquers his demons, and soon - he will not be able to win that first elusive Slam until he does. Hopefully Murray will take heart from the huge step up in standard that his long time friend, Djokovic, has taken this year. He has shown that even the greatest of champions can be beaten.
Perhaps, a chat with Rory McIlroy would help.
For me there are only two things stopping him. Technically, his serve is quite simply not up to scratch. It is a mystery why his training has failed to focus on this, which can perhaps only be explained by his current lack of a coach. They say you can make statistics say anything, but his position as 51st in the world in terms of 1st serve percentage, and an even more dismal 64th in the world in terms of second serve points won, are undeniably critical to his failures. Winning less than half of his second serves, you can see that he is throwing away his advantage of being the best returner in the game by being broken too many times himself.
Perhaps the most telling fact, bringing together his two greatest flaws in a catastrophic union, is the statistic of how many break points he saves. Djokovic saves close to 70 percent, Nadal and Federer in the mid 60's. When they are in trouble, they have the talent and courage to serve themselves out of it. Murray, however, languishes below the 50 percent mark. The key word there, differentiating the three greatest players of their generation, who have won 25 of the last 26 grand slams between them, from Andy Murray, is courage. On the biggest stage, he crumbles.
Sport is littered with outstanding athletes who never managed to fulfil their potential, not because of a lack of talent, but because of a lack of nerve. Murray has a lot in common with the Jamaican sprinter, Asafa Powell. World record holder at the 100 metres for nearly three years before Usain Bolt's explosive arrival in Beijing, he has broken the 10 second barrier more times than any one else. He is consistently brilliant - except at major competitions. 5th in the olympics in Athens, 5th in Beijing, twice a disappointing bronze medallist in the World championships, he claimed 'I am not scared of the Olympics.' Similarly to Murray, maybe Powell has simply been unfortunate that they have been performing at the same time as some of their sports greatest ever athletes. Powell, however, eventually admitted, 'Maybe I'm not the guy for those big championships but just the guy to compete in the Grand Prix and Golden League meetings. It's just unfortunate.'
As I have said, Andy Murray consistently puts himself in the position to win Grand Slams. But in his three finals, he has not managed to win a single set. In his four semi finals, he has won only two sets. For over an hour at Wimbledon this summer, he dominated Nadal, showing incredible confidence and ability to win the first set. But, again he collapsed. How can a player of such undoubted ability have so little confidence in his own game? The pressure of being Britain's best tennis player in well over a generation must weigh heavily, particularly at Wimbledon. He certainly seems outwardly aggressive on the court, yet seems unable to channel this agression into his shot making in the same way as a Nadal or a Djokovic. His forehand is, at times, spectacular. It was even christened, the 'fearhand', by his former coach Brad Gilbert, who had coached other elite players such as Andre Agassi and Andy Roddick. Federer and Henman have both noted that they believe that Murray could achieve so much more if he played more aggressive shots, aiming to hit the lines more regularly, rather than just trying to slog it out from the baseline. The technique is certainly there, Nadal commenting after his victory over Murray at Wimbledon, 'I don't think he needs more. He is playing well enough – a little bit more luck, maybe. Five-set matches are tough, over two weeks.' To put Murray's failure's down to bad luck would be kindness verging on the ridiculous.
You can't help but feel that once the first major title is won, plenty more would follow. Asafa Powell once said that, 'I'm the only one who can defeat myself and I don't intend to.' Well, he never had the bottle to succeed, and with the emergence of the phenomenon that is Usain Bolt, you feel that his chance has gone. We can only hope that Murray conquers his demons, and soon - he will not be able to win that first elusive Slam until he does. Hopefully Murray will take heart from the huge step up in standard that his long time friend, Djokovic, has taken this year. He has shown that even the greatest of champions can be beaten.
Perhaps, a chat with Rory McIlroy would help.
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