The US Open quarter-final between Roger Federer and Jo-Wilfred Tsonga could be a defining match. There is nothing that has not been said about the genius and majesty of Roger Federer. Whether he is indeed the greatest player of all time is something that should be discussed at the end of his career; right now, the focus must be on whether he can recover from his recent form against the up and coming Frenchman. When they met in June in SW19, Federer was seeking a record-equaling seventh Wimbledon title. He breezed through his opening four matches, losing only one set, and played his usual elegant game against Tsonga. But, he was spectacular smashed out after squandering his lead, marking the first time that he has ever lost a Grand Slam match after being two sets up. He subsequently lost to Tsonga again in the Roger's Cup last month.
Despite finishing the Wimbledon quarter-final with only 11 unforced errors, half as many as Tsonga, Federer could not get close to breaking the Frenchman's serve when he desperately needed to. And this will be the key if he's going to win. He still has one of the best serves on the tour, and in that meet he was only broken three times. However, they were decisive as his service return did not put Tsonga under enough pressure. This has been a common feature of his last couple of years, massively trailing his three biggest rivals in the statistics. Djokovic wins almost 40 percent of games in which he is returning serve, Nadal and Murray just behind. Federer in contrast has won only 26 percent of his receiving games this year. It puts a lot of pressure on his serve, so he must attack the Tsonga's serve tonight.
This US Open has another significance being his first major since he turned 30. While a third seeding represents a graceful fall down the standings, the fact is only a handful of players have ever won a Grand Slam in their 30's. Andre Agassi won the Australian Open at 32 in 2003, Pete Sampras the US Open at 31 in 2002. The fact is he'll never be as consistenly great as he once was, and it is looking increasingly unlikely that he will ever return to number 1 in the world, but from watching Federer this week, he certainly looks at his best. If he does not finish as the champion it will be the first year since 2002 that he hasn't won at least one major. For a player with such a spectacular record at the US Open, he must have been disappointed with his defeats in the last two years - up two sets to one in the 2009 final against Del Potro, and last year he had a couple of match points before losing to Djokovic in the semi.
His drop down the rankings isn't simply a drop in form from the Swiss himself, and Federer acknowledges that - 'I'm aware that Novak had to do something extremely special to get past me. Same thing for Rafa. I think we all had to do something very special to get past each other in the rankings. I think that's a good thing.' Incredible self-confidence, which also reflects his claim that he wouldn't continue to play if he didn't think he was good enough to win another Slam. Unfortunately, his winning performances at the French and Wimbledon in '09, and at the Aussie Open in 2010 were the exception rather than the rule. He has undoubtedly lost some of his belief and is well aware that it is no longer a case of if he plays at his best, he will win.
However, the way in which he destroyed Argentinian Juan Monaco in the fourth round could not fail to rekindle memories of just how brilliant he can be. Winning 6-1, 6-2, 6-0 in a preposterous 82 minutes, (only five minutes longer than it took Djokovic and Dolgopolov to finish their mammoth first set,) the score still failed to completely reflect his dominance. He hit an astonishing 42 winners to Monaco's 4. Tsonga though is a different level entirely, and their last couple of meets will weigh heavily on his mind. He has only lost a set so far this tournament, but I fear that if Tsonga does get off to a good start and wins the first set, it will take a monumental mental effort to maintain his belief and come back. If he does lose tonight, I really fear as to whether he will be here this time next year. How long can a champion of Federer's stature maintain his will to win when he has already done it all? What is against him is the way in which lesser players are thriving on and raising their game at the opportunity to defeat arguably the greatest player in the sports history as his ability appears to wane. Players no longer walk onto the court expecting to lose; he has lost that old air of invincibility and he can appear vulnerable.
So, all considered, Tsonga in five? No. I'm going for Federer in 3. He's a genius and is hitting the ball as well as he ever has. He has won this tournament 6 times, and it would be foolish to count him out; despite Djokovic's ruthless efficiency, Federer is my favourite to be lifting the trophy at the end of the week, whenever that will come with the weather preventing yet another Sunday finish.
Will Federer ever dominate tennis again the way he did for 237 weeks from 2004? Most likely, no. He may be 30, but I can't believe Federer, having achieved all he has and having aged so gracefully won't win another Grand Slam. Let's hope it comes this week, and let us hope it isn't just a swan song.
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