With Andy Murray expected to comfortably beat Feliciano Lopez in the Third round of the US Open tonight, booking himself into the second week in yet another Grand Slam tournament, there should be plenty of reason for optimism. He has just come off the back of a successful tournament in Cincinnati, so despite only just prevailing in his five set tussle against Haase in his last match, he seems in good form. This is a player whom has appeared in three Grand Slam finals, four semi-finals, and has a phenomenal record against arguably the best three players ever to dominate the top of the world rankings concurrently in the sports history. Against Federer? Won eight, lost six. Against Djokovic? If you were to exclude those matches played on clay, undoubtedly Murray's weakest surface, he has won four and lost three. It is only against Nadal that he has really failed to impress, although he still has four victories to his name. So, with such a spectacular record against the games finest players, why would I be willing to bet all that I have to my name, which is admittedly not a lot, on another failure this week?
For me there are only two things stopping him. Technically, his serve is quite simply not up to scratch. It is a mystery why his training has failed to focus on this, which can perhaps only be explained by his current lack of a coach. They say you can make statistics say anything, but his position as 51st in the world in terms of 1st serve percentage, and an even more dismal 64th in the world in terms of second serve points won, are undeniably critical to his failures. Winning less than half of his second serves, you can see that he is throwing away his advantage of being the best returner in the game by being broken too many times himself.
Perhaps the most telling fact, bringing together his two greatest flaws in a catastrophic union, is the statistic of how many break points he saves. Djokovic saves close to 70 percent, Nadal and Federer in the mid 60's. When they are in trouble, they have the talent and courage to serve themselves out of it. Murray, however, languishes below the 50 percent mark. The key word there, differentiating the three greatest players of their generation, who have won 25 of the last 26 grand slams between them, from Andy Murray, is courage. On the biggest stage, he crumbles.
Sport is littered with outstanding athletes who never managed to fulfil their potential, not because of a lack of talent, but because of a lack of nerve. Murray has a lot in common with the Jamaican sprinter, Asafa Powell. World record holder at the 100 metres for nearly three years before Usain Bolt's explosive arrival in Beijing, he has broken the 10 second barrier more times than any one else. He is consistently brilliant - except at major competitions. 5th in the olympics in Athens, 5th in Beijing, twice a disappointing bronze medallist in the World championships, he claimed 'I am not scared of the Olympics.' Similarly to Murray, maybe Powell has simply been unfortunate that they have been performing at the same time as some of their sports greatest ever athletes. Powell, however, eventually admitted, 'Maybe I'm not the guy for those big championships but just the guy to compete in the Grand Prix and Golden League meetings. It's just unfortunate.'
As I have said, Andy Murray consistently puts himself in the position to win Grand Slams. But in his three finals, he has not managed to win a single set. In his four semi finals, he has won only two sets. For over an hour at Wimbledon this summer, he dominated Nadal, showing incredible confidence and ability to win the first set. But, again he collapsed. How can a player of such undoubted ability have so little confidence in his own game? The pressure of being Britain's best tennis player in well over a generation must weigh heavily, particularly at Wimbledon. He certainly seems outwardly aggressive on the court, yet seems unable to channel this agression into his shot making in the same way as a Nadal or a Djokovic. His forehand is, at times, spectacular. It was even christened, the 'fearhand', by his former coach Brad Gilbert, who had coached other elite players such as Andre Agassi and Andy Roddick. Federer and Henman have both noted that they believe that Murray could achieve so much more if he played more aggressive shots, aiming to hit the lines more regularly, rather than just trying to slog it out from the baseline. The technique is certainly there, Nadal commenting after his victory over Murray at Wimbledon, 'I don't think he needs more. He is playing well enough – a little bit more luck, maybe. Five-set matches are tough, over two weeks.' To put Murray's failure's down to bad luck would be kindness verging on the ridiculous.
You can't help but feel that once the first major title is won, plenty more would follow. Asafa Powell once said that, 'I'm the only one who can defeat myself and I don't intend to.' Well, he never had the bottle to succeed, and with the emergence of the phenomenon that is Usain Bolt, you feel that his chance has gone. We can only hope that Murray conquers his demons, and soon - he will not be able to win that first elusive Slam until he does. Hopefully Murray will take heart from the huge step up in standard that his long time friend, Djokovic, has taken this year. He has shown that even the greatest of champions can be beaten.
Perhaps, a chat with Rory McIlroy would help.
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